Prairie Climate Centre

Welcome

How is the climate of the Canadian Prairie Provinces going to change in the coming decades?

The Prairie Climate Atlas answers this important question by providing you with detailed, state-of-the-art yet easily understood information about our region’s changing climate.

By scrolling down, you will be guided through the ongoing story of prairie climate change. Feel free to interact with the maps and graphics as they appear.

The Prairie Climate Atlas

This is a research and outreach project with the explicit goal of making the best climate science available to a broad spectrum of society.

For the general public this will hopefully communicate the severity of climate change and the urgent need for action. For scientists, policy makers and local leaders, the information available will contribute to adaptation and mitigation planning.

This site is being maintained for reference and archival purposes. Our new (April 2018) Climate Atlas of Canada presents a more interactive and coast to coast to coast version of this concept, based on the same data but presented in more detail and across the country.

The High Carbon Future

We know the climate is changing. Climatologists have been working to understand how this might affect our future.

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are used to inform us about forthcoming change. We use the average, or ensemble, of the output from 12 GCMs to illustrate future climates.

Interact with the graph to see how the temperature increases over time (relative to the 1961-1990 average), taking into account different carbon emission scenarios.

The red line depicts how much more the Prairie climate is projected to warm if we continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels for energy. Scientists refer to this as the High Carbon scenario. It is important to note that climate projections began in the year 2006.

Scroll down to see what happens if we reduce our emissions.

The Low Carbon Future

If the global community takes immediate and drastic steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the amount of warming will be reduced. Here, we call this scenario the Low Carbon future, depicted by the blue line on the graph.

This amount of warming is still alarming. As you can see, around mid-century, the globe will have warmed by an additional 2 ˚C (relative to 1961-1990), a level of warming that could have dangerous consequences.

As you can see, the Prairie Provinces – regardless of whether you have clicked High or Low - are projected to warm much more than the globe as a whole.

Modeling the Recent Past

Climate models do a very good job of simulating historic climate conditions.

The grey line shows the average annual temperature of the Prairie Provinces since the year 1950, as calculated by the suite of 12 models used to project future conditions.

The grayed out area is the range of temperatures produced by the 12 different models. Similarly, the blue and red areas represent the range of future projections.

Because these models do a good job of simulating the past, we are confident in their ability to project future conditions associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

The Paris Agreement of 2015

The Paris Agreement of 2015 is intended to keep global mean temperature rise below 2 ˚C, relative to pre-industrial values.

Interact with the graph. At mid-century, you will see that global temperature will increase by +2 °C. This is when High and Low carbon futures diverge ─ a critical tipping point for our climate.

Warming above 2 ˚C may destabilize the global climate system and risk irreversible damage to humanity and the environment. Consequently, the Paris Agreement also established a 1.5 ˚C target as an aspirational goal which we may have already passed.

Meeting the Paris Agreement will require an even more ambitious reduction in emissions than represented by the Low Carbon scenario. Creating a carbon neutral economy is undoubtedly the challenge and opportunity of our time.

Recent Past

This map shows the average number of hot days (≥ 30 ˚C) per year in the Recent Past (the period of 1981-2010).

Some places already experience many hot days per year. Click on Medicine Hat (in southern Alberta) to see that this community experiences an average of 26 hot days per year. Winnipeg, Manitoba, in comparison, only gets about 11 hot days per year.

Click on Near Future or Far Future to move the map forward in time. As you will see, the number of hot days per year is projected to increase substantially, even under the Low Carbon scenario.

Near Future

Here we refer to the period of 2021-2050 as the Near Future.

Across most of the Prairies, the number of hot days has roughly doubled from the Recent Past.

Explore these maps in more detail by switching the overlay from communities to ecological or municipal zones (use the pull-down menu at the top). Click on a zone to see its value and how it changes between the High and Low carbon scenarios.

You can also zoom in and out by clicking the plus and minus signs on the bottom right of the map to see a region of interest in more detail.

Far Future

Near the end of this century (2051-2080) the number of hot days may triple or even quadruple.

On average, a place like Winnipeg currently gets about 11 hot days per year, but nearing the 2080s, if we fail to curb emissions, this will jump to nearly 50. That’s almost two months with +30° C temperatures. 

Fort McMurray, in an average year, currently gets about 3 of these hot days, but later this century under a high carbon scenario this would increase to about 20 days. The implications of this are profound and far-reaching.

Have you considered what summer would feel like if it was +30 ˚C almost every day? A large increase in the number of hot days will amplify the risk of heat waves, droughts and forest fires.

Recent Past

This map shows the average number of cold days per year (-30 ˚C or colder) in the Recent Past.

Click on Churchill, Manitoba, to see that it has about 40 cold days per year, which is critical for its unique sub-arctic environment, indigenous cultures and tourism.

By overlaying the ecological zones, you can see that the southern Prairies have fewer than 10 cold days on average. Look around to see how many cold days the rest of the region experiences.

While many Prairie dwellers complain about cold temperatures, cold weather has value. For example, cold temperatures keep pests and invasive species in check, allow for the construction of winter roads to service remote communities, and is an important aspect of our cultural and recreational heritage.

Near Future

Not surprisingly, climate models indicate that winters will get much warmer.

Across the North, the models project that by 2021-2050 the number of cold days per year will be reduced by about half.

Communities in the south will on average have very few, if any, cold days per year. Regina, Saskatchewan, for example, is projected to have only 3 cold days per year (compared to 8 in the Recent Past).

Far Future

Near the end of the century, cold days will essentially disappear across the Prairie Provinces in an average winter.

The dark red colour on this map denotes an average of zero cold days per year. As you can see, many southern communities are within this red zone.

A very important aspect of the Prairie climate is the timing and duration of the seasons. This map suggests that winters across the Prairies will continue to get warmer and undoubtedly shorter.

Projected Changes in Total Winter Precipitation

Winter precipitation is projected to increase but because the season is also expected to get warmer, more of this precipitation is likely to fall as rain.

Are you a farmer? A skier? A hunter? Or someone in a remote or flood prone community?

This change, while seemingly minor, can have some profound consequences, and will likely impact road maintenance, winter transportation, recreation activities, groundwater recharge, spring flooding and more.

Click to explore how winter precipitation will change in the future and Scroll down to advance through the seasons.

Projected Changes in Total Spring Precipitation

Spring is the season expected to experience the largest increase in precipitation.

By the end of the century, in the High Carbon scenario, a 20-30% increase in precipitation is projected across much of the southern Prairies.

This map suggests an increased possibility of flooding and associated risks. Spring flooding can cost billions of dollars, alter entire ecosystems and result in the displacement of entire communities.

Overlay the municipal zones to better understand how your community may be affected.

Projected Changes in Total Summer Precipitation

We know that summers in all areas of the Prairie Provinces are likely to get much warmer, but precipitation is more complex and region specific.

Even a small decrease in summer precipitation could greatly increase the risk of drought. The heat is also expected to cause more intense summer storms.

More lightning, combined with drier conditions, is a recipe for more intense and frequent forest fires. The ecological, economic and societal risks are enormous.

Projected Changes in Total Fall Precipitation

Falls are expected to get slightly wetter but substantially warmer.

Overall, this drastically extends the growing season, and may provide benefits for agriculture and rural livelihood.

A longer fall will delay the onset of winter conditions, undoubtedly impacting everything from snowmobiling to ice hockey on outdoor rinks. We will see the seasons change before our very eyes.

For all seasons, it is important to note that modest changes in overall precipitation, in conjunction with warmer temperatures, may increase the risk of extreme events.

A Much Longer Growing Season

The frost-free period is one of the most important aspects of the Prairie climate, in that it defines the length of the growing season.

A longer growing season provides farmers with new and perhaps more profitable opportunities, but the increasing risk of excessive heat and drought may limit these benefits. Similarly, a longer, hotter growing season will increase the potential for pests and invasive species.

Climate change is extending our growing season rapidly. The frost-free period across the southern Prairies has already increased by about one month over the last 100 years and is expected to increase by yet another month in the next 50 years.

Explore these maps by clicking between the Recent Past, Near Future and Far Future.

Winnipeg’s Future Winter Climate: 2020s

As the climate warms, almost all areas of the Prairie Provinces will find their climates changing in substantial ways. So, whose climate will we have in the future?

This section of the website introduces an important adaptation tool called the spatial analogue. These maps highlight regions whose present day climate is similar to Winnipeg’s projected climate.

In the yellow zone, you can see that by 2020, Winnipeg will have a winter similar to North Dakota.

Scroll down to see what happens.

Winnipeg’s Future Winter Climate: 2050s

By mid-century, Winnipeg’s winter will be much more moderate, like the orange zone around Minnesota.

It is important to remember that places not that far south of the Canadian Prairies currently have much warmer winters.

Winnipeg’s Future Winter Climate: 2080s

Under the High Carbon scenario, Winnipeg’s far future (2080s) winter climate will be like that of present day Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa.

By visualizing these climatic Spatial Analogues we have an effective tool for adaptation. By anticipating whose climate we will have in the future, we can begin planning that creates innovative policy and encourages resilient communities.

Scroll down to see the summer spatial analogues for Winnipeg. Perhaps more than any other maps in this Atlas, these demonstrate the extreme changes anticipated for the southern Prairies.

Winnipeg’s Future Summer Climate: 2020s

If we want to be serious about building resilient communities, we have to come to grips with the intense changes projected for summer conditions.

In the near future, the summer climate of Winnipeg, in terms of temperature and precipitation, will become similar to that of present day North Dakota.

Initially this is not a drastic change, but it is the beginning of a profound shift towards an entirely new Prairie climate.

Winnipeg’s Future Summer Climate: 2050s

The mid-century summer temperature and precipitation conditions in Winnipeg will be similar to those of present day South Dakota and Nebraska.

It is likely that the kind of weather currently observed in the American Great Plains will become more common in our Prairies.

This includes an increase in extreme temperatures, intense rainfalls and severe storms. This may change our cropping systems, water management, air conditioning demand and exposure to heat related health risks.

Winnipeg’s Future Summer Climate: 2080s

Remarkably, by the end of this century, under the High Carbon scenario, Winnipeg’s summer climate will be similar to that of present day Kansas and northern Texas.

This would be a total game changer for the Prairie landscape. This rapid shift would present our children with an entirely different climate, which would necessitate a complete reworking of how we live and thrive in our environment.

We are currently not ready for this future. Our ecosystems, economies and cultures will be stressed by these dramatic changes. We need to be prepared and, as much as possible, prevent the High Carbon world from becoming a reality.

The climate atlas is an ongoing project telling the story of climate change on the Prairies. Return to this site often, share it with your friends and become part of the solution.

It is our hope that this combination of science, visual storytelling and tools for both adaptation and mitigation planning will help get our country on track.

This Atlas supports regional adaptation planning, giving everyone from managers to mayors the tools they need for implementation of commitments made in the Vancouver Declaration and Paris Agreement. If you are in need of maps, data and related tools, please Get in Touch.

We will be visiting communities across the Prairies to develop a documentary film on the human dimension of climate change. This groundbreaking initiative will integrate cinema, cartography and climate science, creating a highly interactive and multi-media enriched Atlas.

Like us on Facebook to stay in touch! That way we'll be able send out solution-oriented information on an ongoing basis that helps us collectively transition our communities from risk to resilience.